Climate Change, Climate Variability and Adaptation in Ethiopia

Abstract

This paper attempts to identify climate change and variability indicators and consequences in Ethiopia and to pin-point current climate risk adaptation measures and to suggest further areas of intervention. Climate influences natural systems (ecosystem) resources, industries, communities, productivity and reliability of supplies, regions and nations. Climate generally affects our everyday life, and hence its slight deviation from 'normal' has various consequences. The incidence and magnitude of climatic disasters today is widely recognized as posing a serious threat to the survival, dignity and livelihood of countless individuals, particularly the poor. It is now understood that climate or environmental crises have a compelling influence over social structures and political stability in vulnerable traditional societies such as Ethiopia. Ethiopia's climate is influenced by general atmospheric and oceanic factors that affect the weather system and the time of inception and intensity of the rains which are received during the Ethiopian spring, autumn and summer seasons either in a uni- or bi-modal pattern. The summer rainfall (June-September-"Belg") contributes about 74% of the annual rainfall in the country as compared to the spring (February-May- "Meher") and autumn (September-November) rainfalls. A weakness or failure of the rainfall in one or more of the rainy seasons has disastrous consequences in the country. Although Ethiopia receives rainfall during the spring and autumn seasons depending on location, the summer rainfall contributes about 74% of the annual rainfall in the country. A weakness or failure of the rainfall in one or more of the rainy seasons has disastrous consequences in the country. During the last century, Ethiopia's climate variability and the consequent agricultural as well as socio-economic crises attracted continuous global attention. It was reported that shortage of precipitation and its variability in space and time had led to recurrent and substantial shortfalls in agricultural production, which claimed tens of thousands of human and animal lives. During these years, the country suffered significant production deficit of about 20% in the agricultural sector resulting in a decrease of total annual production by about one million tons. Several simulation studies indicated the likely impacts of climate change on Ethiopia. An increase of temperature by 10 °C and decrease of rainfall by up to 2% are projected for the year 2030. The climate in Ethiopia is expected to be more variable with climate change; increasing the chance of extreme events such as drought and floods. Several reports have indicated the likely negative effects of climate change on Ethiopia on water resources (drying or a decrease in water level of lakes), ecosystems (ecosystem transformation and biodiversity loss), health (epidemics of malaria. Rift Valley Fever, cholera), food security, and on efforts being made in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is concluded that the effective reduction of vulnerabilities to current climate variability and change requires coordination across different levels of governance and the involvement of various stakeholders.